"I said going in that I'd almost certainly be wrong about most of it. I was wrong about some of it. But I was right about more than I expected — and the parts I got wrong are the most interesting parts of this tournament so far." — Sorin
A few weeks ago I published my completely unqualified World Cup predictions. The group stage is done. The Round of 32 is done. The Round of 16 is underway. It's time to face the music — and honestly? It's not as bad as I feared.
If you haven't read the original predictions post, go there first. This one won't make much sense without it. I'll wait.
Back? Good. Let's go through this properly.
What I Got Right — More Than I Deserved
Let's start with the wins, because there were more of them than I expected when I sat down to write this.
The big guns all came through in the group stage. France, Spain, Argentina, Portugal, England, Brazil, Belgium, Norway — all advanced, all where I predicted they'd be. When you back the heavyweights, you're going to be right more often than not. Not exactly brave predictions, but still — I'll take it.
Mexico delivered. I had them topping their group, and they did — beating Ecuador in the Round of 32 to reach the last 16. As a Canadian watching one of the co-hosts advance, that was genuinely fun to follow. Mexico breaking their 40-year curse of exiting at the group stage was a real storyline this tournament.
Canada made it through. I had Canada second in their group, and they topped South Africa 1-0 to advance. As someone living in Canada, I'll admit I was rooting harder than I expected. They face Morocco today — and I am so excited to cheer and already ready for the game. Morocco knocked out Netherlands on penalties which makes this a serious test, but Canada at home with the crowd behind them in a tournament where upsets are happening everywhere? I want to believe. I really do.
Spain beat Austria. Called it. Spain 3-0 Austria in the Round of 32 — exactly the kind of dominant, technically precise performance I expected from them. Lamine Yamal scoring his first World Cup goal at 18 years old — while his neighborhood of Rocafonda back in Spain watched from local bars — was one of the best human interest stories of the early rounds.
England beat DR Congo 2-1. Predicted. England looked shaky in parts but got the job done with the help of the captain Kane. Now they face Mexico — at the Azteca of all places. That matchup writes itself.
Brazil beat Japan 2-1. Called it. Brazil looked good — physical, quick, technically strong. But I have to be honest — I was sad to see the brave Japanese going home. Japan played beautiful, disciplined football throughout this tournament. Sometimes the rules are not fair. One goal separating two teams of this quality and one goes home while the other continues. That's football, I know. Doesn't mean I have to like it.
What I Got Wrong — And Why It Makes This Tournament Better
Now the honest part. And honestly? The things I got wrong are the things that have made this World Cup genuinely exciting.
Germany is out. Paraguay sent them home on penalties. I had Germany going deep into the tournament. Instead, Ecuador upset them in the group stage, and then Paraguay — a team I had as a minor note in Group D — eliminated them in a penalty shootout. This is the kind of result that reminds you why they actually play the games.
Morocco eliminated Netherlands on penalties. I had Netherlands beating Morocco. Instead Morocco knocked out the Dutch in one of the most dramatic moments of the tournament so far. I underestimated Morocco. Again. Every major tournament, Morocco surprises people. At some point "surprise" stops being the right word.
My group stage bracket had some gaps. Czech Republic was supposed to go through with Mexico — instead South Korea advanced. Some of my third-place predictions didn't land at all. The expanded 48-team format created chaos in the group stage that even the most informed predictions couldn't fully anticipate.
The Final That Came Too Early — Spain vs Portugal in the Round of 16
I need to talk about this one separately because it deserves its own section.
Spain vs Portugal. Monday July 7. AT&T Stadium in Dallas. A World Cup Round of 16 match that feels like it belongs in a final — and in my original predictions, I had these two meeting in the final itself.
Instead, one of them is going home before the quarterfinals. That's genuinely painful to think about.
On one side you have Spain — unbeaten, not a single goal conceded in four matches, playing some of the most technically perfect football at this tournament. Lamine Yamal at 18 years old is already one of the best players on the planet. On the other side you have Portugal — Ronaldo's last dance, the Nations League champions, a team that came back from a goal down to beat Croatia 2-1 in the Round of 32 with a stoppage-time winner. Dramatic, resilient, dangerous.
These two met in the Euro 2016 final. They met in the Nations League final last year — Portugal won that one. Now they meet again on the biggest stage, with a quarterfinal berth on the line instead of a trophy.
Whoever wins this match should win the whole tournament. That's how good both teams are. The fact that one of them goes home in the Round of 16 is the clearest argument yet that the expanded format — while it creates wonderful stories like Cape Verde and Morocco going deep — also creates bracket chaos that punishes teams who deserve better. Spain and Portugal both deserved a path to the final. The draw gave them each other instead.
I still think Spain win. But I'm not happy about it.
My Updated Predictions — Quarterfinalists and Beyond
With Germany out and Morocco through, my bracket needs adjusting. Here's where I now stand on who goes deep:
France — they weren't my original pick to win the whole thing, but after watching them through the group stage and the Round of 32, I'm keem my eyes on them now. They beat Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 without breaking a sweat — clinical, dominant, deep in squad quality. I'm picking them to beat Paraguay in the Round of 16 and keep going. They're playing like a team that knows exactly what they're doing.
Spain — still in my final. Lamine Yamal is 17 years old and already one of the best players in this tournament. Spain beat Austria 3-0 without breaking a sweat. They're the team that worries me most as an opponent for anyone, and they are still my favourites.
Portugal — unfortunately, this is where their journey ends. They lose in the Round of 16 to Spain on Monday, and with that, Cristiano Ronaldo — one of the greatest players to ever play this game — walks away from a World Cup without the one trophy that has eluded him his entire career. No other major honor has escaped him. Ballon d'Or titles, Champions Leagues, European Championships, Nations League — he has collected everything the game has to offer except the one thing that matters most to him. There's something genuinely tragic about that. A player of his generation, his dedication, his obsessive pursuit of greatness — and the World Cup trophy will remain the one empty space in his cabinet. At 39, this was almost certainly his last real chance. I hope I'm wrong about Monday. I don't think I am.
England — I still have them going deep. They've been functional rather than exciting, but Kane in big form changes everything. After a big battle on the iconic Azteca the question for England in every tournament is always the same: will they find another gear when it matters? I think they will this time — at least as far as the semis.
Morocco — the wildcard. They knocked out Netherlands on penalties. They're organized, defensively solid, and genuinely dangerous on the counter. After they'll beat Canada today — and I'll be sad about that — they become a legitimate quarterfinal threat. But they won't be able to get past France. That's where their run ends, in my opinion — a quarterfinal exit against the best team left in the tournament.
The US — don't sleep on them. Playing at home, with a crowd that will be electric and loud and completely behind them, I think they upset Belgium in the Round of 16. The home advantage in a tournament co-hosted across North America is real — you can hear it in every game played on US soil. But after Belgium, they run into Spain in the quarterfinals, and that's a different conversation entirely. Spain are simply too technically complete, too composed under pressure. The US make the quarters, they make the country proud, and then Spain remind everyone why they're favorites. Still — a quarterfinal at a home World Cup for the USA would be a genuinely historic moment.
Argentina — Messi is still here. He scored 6 times in the group stage. At 39 years old he's operating at a level that makes you realize you're watching something that won't exist again.
After a big scare from the game against the brave little nation of Cape Verde, Argentina take their next game against Egypt seriously and advance. They meet Colombia in the quarterfinals — a proper South American derby — and I believe Argentina prevail. That sets up a semifinal against England, and that's the match I'm most looking forward to in this entire tournament. Messi vs Kane. Argentina vs England. The history between these two nations in World Cups alone makes it unmissable.
Brazil — Neymar is not in his best shape and it shows. They'll barely get past the brave Vikings of Norway in the Round of 16 — Norway will give them a real game, the kind that makes you nervous for 90 minutes. But Brazil have enough quality to scrape through. They won't have the same luck against England though. Kane in this form, with Brazil showing vulnerability, I think England end Brazil's tournament in the quarterfinals.
Africa — they did strong in the group stage 9 out of 10 passed the groups but they run to most of them stop in the first knok out stage. All Africans eyes are now towards the only two teams left Marocco and Egypt. Personally I dodn't see any of them became world champions. All of them did play very good and exiting games still it will be some time until their dream will come true.
The Thing That's Surprised Me Most
I wrote in my original post about the expanded format — 48 teams, more inclusion, diluted quality. I had mixed feelings about it going in.
I still have mixed feelings. But I'll admit — the tournament has been more entertaining than I expected. The upsets have been real upsets, not just minnows scraping a draw. Morocco beating Netherlands. Paraguay eliminating Germany. Ecuador nearly holding on against Argentina in the group stage. These aren't flukes from weak opposition — these are genuine upsets from teams that have been building for exactly this moment.
The 48-team format creates more of these moments. More nations with something real to play for. More players getting to stand on the biggest stage. I complained about the diluted quality before the tournament — and I don't fully take that back. But I understand now why FIFA made the call they did.
And as we go deeper into the tournament, the quality increases dramatically. We're already seeing matches that could have been finals in any other year — Portugal vs Spain in the Round of 16, potentially Brazil vs England in the quarters, and if my predictions hold, France vs Spain and England vs Argentina in the semis. These aren't just good games. These are the kind of football moments you tell people about years later. Because of that, I'm going to hold my final prediction for the next post — before the final itself. Some things deserve to be savored.
And from my couch in Canada, with a beer in hand and the whole tournament playing out across the country where I live — afternoons and late evenings glued to the screen — I'm enjoying every minute of it. (A good TV helps enormously. This is what I'd recommend if you're still watching on anything less than 55 inches.)
My Personal Experience So Far
I told you I'd be watching from home. I have been.
Every game I can — weekend afternoons with the TV on, late evenings when something interesting is happening. My Romanian friends group chat has been going non-stop since June 11. We're all wrong about different things, which makes it better.
Romania didn't qualify. That still stings a little. But watching Canada advance, living here, feeling the genuine excitement in this country around a tournament that's partly on home soil — that's been something I didn't expect to feel as much as I do.
There's something about the World Cup that doesn't exist anywhere else in sport. A Romanian guy in Canada, a Cape Verde fan watching their national team reach the last 16 of a World Cup for the first time, a billion people across 48 countries all watching the same games and caring about them — simultaneously, passionately, loudly.
That's what makes this worth the price of the beer and the lost sleep.
I'll be back before the final with one last update — who made it, who surprised me, and whether I owe anyone an apology for the predictions that didn't survive contact with actual football. Spain are still my pick to lift the trophy. France are the team that scares me most. And whoever comes out of the Argentina side of the bracket will have to go through at least one miracle to get there. Check back soon — this tournament is far from done.
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Where Did I Get It Most Wrong?
Tell me your take — who's your pick to win it now that we're in the Round of 16? And if you think Germany going out to Paraguay on penalties was the upset of the tournament so far, make your case. Leave a comment below — I read every one and respond personally.